Does statistics help us better predict the result of direct matches?

The answer to the question from the title can be a positives one as well as a negative one. Below we will present to you how the history of direct matches can help us and we will also present what aspects become useless.

Many bettors look for the last x direct matches (2-3-10) before placing a bet and they say “at this match works over 2.5 goals”. Theoretically, their idea is a correct one, but practically things are different.

In the first place, it counts a lot when those direct matches took place. If they were played within the last two seasons, they can be enlightening. But if we look over the history of direct matches from 2005 then it becomes almost useless. Since that time, many players have left the team and probably there are other coaches. This takes us to the second aspect, the coaches.

Here things change from year to year. If in the last season, between the x and y teams 10 goals were marked, it does not mean that the same thing will happen again. Most probable the coaches were changed (or just one of them) and the results will be completely different. For example, AS Roma has now matches with many goals scored since Zeman is in the technical area. If Di Matteo will be brought for the next season, things can drastically change.

The history of the direct matches can be equal to zero if we do not keep into consideration the periods in which the matches took place and here there are two possibilities. Let us assume that in the last x direct matches there were many goals scored.  All these matches took place in the fall or spring, in full season. But now the match takes place during winter, on cold weather and the players are thinking of holiday, in this case we believe that the statistics is null. Another aspect concerns the matches with stakes played by teams during the period the direct matches took place. If team x comes after a few trying matches and the coach uses mostly the subs, things can change because the force of the team is no longer the same.

The statistics for direct matches becomes insignificant when a team is facing radical changes. The first example that comes to our mind is the team Manchester City that 2-3 years ago was struggling with mediocrity and now is a top team in Premier League. Another example in which the statistics is insufficient when choosing a pick concerns the financial problems a team might face, the players are not payed or were on strike for 2-3 days and have not trained. This thing matters enormously even though the team has defeated the opponent in the last 5 direct matches.

Now we should talk about aspects that remain when talking about the history of the direct matches. If in the technical area there are the same coaches as in the last two seasons, the matches will probably have the same outcome. The two coaches probably know themselves by now pretty good (facing 4 times) and the statistics can be applied here. Statistics can also be important with teams that in the last 2-3 seasons have shared points.

In conclusion to everything we have said above, we think that statistics is important, but no more than 10-15% in choosing a pick. The information gathered from official websites are much more important and you can turn to local newspapers too.

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