A frantic 24 hours has seen all UK betting operators revise their political betting markets, with Brexit entering its do-or-die moment, as Parliament is summoned to a Saturday sitting, voting on PM Boris Johnson’s exit deal.
On first delivery, the chances of Commons approving Johnson’s deal were met with scepticism, as yesterday betting exchange Smarkets reported that an extension of Article 50 was viewed as the most likely Brexit outcome trading at 78%.
Smarkets maintains its position indicating an A50 extension, now priced at 1.59 (63%), however, the betting exchange reports that Boris’ deal has blurred Brexit markets.
Heading into a ‘Super Saturday’ vote, Smarkets will observe how Johnson manoeuvres cross-party ranks, securing backers for his deal.
Detailing insight to SBC, Smarkets Head of Politics, Sarbjit Bakhshi: “Without the DUP’s support Johnson will have to rely on pro-Brexit Labour rebels and Conservative MPs who want Brexit at any cost to get his deal through, who realise this is the ‘do-or-die’ moment for Brexit.”
With all eyes on Commons, Smarkets has launched a special ‘Withdrawal Agreement Vote’ – market, which currently sees prices fluctuate at 1.95 (52%) between a yes or no vote.
“It is hard to see this alliance bringing the majority that the Prime Minister needs, so it looks possible that Johnson will need a promise of a second referendum to bring the bulk of the Labour party on board. Whether he’d prefer to lose than do this is the question on everyone’s minds” Bakhshi adds
Meanwhile, the Betfair Exchange has this afternoon reported that odds have shortened from 6/4 to 5/6 in the last 24 hours and could shorten furthermore as Boris continues to lobby support in Westminster today.
Updating the media, Betfair Spokesperson Katie Baylis said: “It’s now odds-on at 5/6 on Betfair Exchange for the vote to pass and those odds are continuing to shorten.”
“The odds of everything being in place for the October 31st deadline are also shortening and it’s now 8/5 from 3/1 yesterday for the EU to Brexit by the end of the month, with a Brexit no-deal is now out to odds of 13/2 as a deal looks closer to many that it ever has.”
As Friday closes, bookmakers anticipate further market disruptions, as media speculation grows as to whether PM Johnson has secured the numbers needed to approve his exit deal, as the UK heads into what will be its most important ‘coin toss’ of all time…