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Value bets

Value betting is a kind of betting strategy, which is based on the theory that the odds have a higher probability value than the expected probability of it occurring. To put it simply, it is a type of bet where you back something considering its winning opportunities to be greater than the available odds. So basically you are looking for a good value. Value betting is completely a mathematical based strategy. Here you are not selecting a team and then checking the odds. Instead you are looking at the odds and not the chance the team has of winning the match. Such bets are termed as value bets.


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You may wonder whether an object of value is set with higher odds. This is not true as the theory is based on your perception of what chances the team has of winning. Value bets generally have odds more than 1.0. For example, you strongly feel that the team you are backing has a 50% chance of winning the match, so any odds above 2.0 will be value bets and profitable in the long run. If you believe that the team has only 40% chance of winning with the odds set as 2.0, it is not a value bet.

Value Bets can be calculated as (Odd * Probability)/100

If the odds work out to over 1.0, they are considered as value bets but if they are less than 1.0, the bets are not value bets. The greater the value, the higher paid will be the bet.


How can you know that the bet you are looking at is a value bet? In order to know that the bet you are considering is a value bet, you need to be thorough with the concept and have a full knowledge of the sport you are planning to bet on. You may consider creating your own price upon upcoming events that you are interested in, before the actual bookmaker prices are up in the market. Once the real market prices are out, you can compare them with yours and check to see which ones have a higher bookie pricing in comparison because these will be your value bets. The larger the difference between the prices, the greater will be your profits from it.


Now how do we calculate the probability of a bet? Sports do not use any kind of mathematical data that would help us calculate the probability of a team winning. So instead, we use a simple theory like calculating the probability of a bet to derive the odds. Here we use the values to calculate the probability. In this manner we can calculate the average probability of odds from different bookmakers. Now you need to pick a value bet from one of these bookmakers, so you would choose the one offering the highest odds. These odds would then be multiplied by the average probability and divided by hundred using the above formula to know whether it is a value bet. If the value derived is more than 1.0, it is a value bet. While calculating value bets, you need to think in the same terms as the oddsmaker to be able to find value in a sports bet.


One thing that you need to remember while placing value bets is that you will lose more bets than you win. However, when you look at them in the long run, even one win will be able to outweigh the loss incurred from a number of lost bets. As the name suggests, these bets provide you value, they have to be considered as long term gains and not short term windfalls. Most importantly, never get upset and change your strategy or give up when you see a series of losses for the jackpot is yet to come. Your profit will show only after a few losses. You may place as many bets as you think have a fair chance of winning, but never bet on those that are of poor value and do not pursue your losses.


Another important tip to remember is that big favourites never constitute value bets because bookmakers will never provide high prices for big names, as they know that general punters would commonly bet on the favourites, in which case the bookie might have to dole out large payouts. So your call for a value bet would be betting on the underdogs. Also money management is important just as it is with other kinds of betting. You need to maintain a proper balance between your profits and losses. Again, never bet more than 3% of your bankroll on the bets. Bet on sports that you are clearly familiar with whilst choosing those that have a lot of action and some surprises too.


Value betting is not for the novice, as it needs great practice and skill to calculate the probability and arrive at a right decision. A wrong calculation can land you an unexpected loss, so it is best to master the technique before you start considering value bets. Also you need a high level of patience, so if you are looking to making instant money, you may not be able to bear the initial losses that are part of value betting. You need to be highly disciplined to handle these bets. The strategy can be quite time consuming too, so unless you have all the time in the world to make all your calculations even before the bookmaker has made his, value bets are not a strategy that you should use.


The beginning and end season are a good time to apply this strategy, as the game outcomes are generally variable during this time. If you are tempted by the high profits that you can make from value bets and want to try out the strategy, get your learning cap on and first read up all you can about value bets, understand every bit of how it works and then apply the strategy using a minimum bankroll that does not affect you badly when you lose.



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